DJI rumors about new products like the upcoming Mavic 3 drone have a funny way of distracting people from what DJI is actually working on. Take the pending release of the DJI Mini SE, a re-branded upcycling of the old Mavic Mini drone: while everyone is chasing down drone rumors about other DJI products, we get side-swiped by something we didn’t even know was in the pipeline.
But in our constant surveillance of drone rumors and leaks, there’s actually some hard data we can study to help us fine tune fact from fiction.
One of those sources is the dynamic ‘Days Since’ tracker in our Drone Buyers Guide. The tracker measures how many days it has been since a product was released, as well as the date and month of release, and how long since the previous product refresh.
It’s one thing to know that it’s been “a long time” since a DJI product was refreshed. It’s entirely another to suddenly identify a little secret that DJI has when it comes to product updates.
1000 Days And Counting
Looking at the Mavic 2 Series section of our Drone Buyers Guide, one of the first things you’ll notice is it’s age. Last month the Mavic 2 Series turned 1000 days old…almost three years! (Congrats Mavic 2!)
And even though the Mavic 2 Series is heading towards it’s 4th year of production, it’s still one of our favorite drones. We own the Mavic 2 Pro version with the 1″ sensor fronted by a 20MP Hasselblad designed camera with variable aperture. It’s truly a professional level drone and there’s nothing about it we would consider ‘aged’.
But do you know what DJI has done since the Mavic 2 Series was released?
Since August of 2018, when the Mavic 2 Series was announced DJI has released 4 all-new consumer level products and has already refreshed three of those new products…one of them twice!
It’s mind blowing to think about how busy DJI has been since the Mavic 2 release, but let me walk you through it:
- August 2018 Mavic 2 Series released
- November 2018 DJI Osmo Pocket released
- May 2019 DJI Osmo Action released
- October 2019 DJI Mavic Mini drone released
- April 2020 Mavic Air 2 released — a refresh of the prior Mavic Air
- November 2020 DJI Mini 2 released — a refresh of the prior Mavic Mini
- November 2020 DJI Pocket 2 released — a refresh of the prior DJI Osmo Pocket
- March 2021 DJI FPV Drone released
- April 2021 DJI Air 2S released — a second refresh for the Air series
All of this action away from the larger Mavic 2 quadcopter category has some drone enthusiasts spooked, wondering if DJI is abandoning the larger aircraft in favor of smaller models like the Air 2 Series that have comparable, but not equal specs?
We don’t think so, and here’s why:
In 2020, DJI met it’s fiercest competition in the folding quadcopter space from Autel Robotics and their mighty Autel EVO II Series, a drone with better battery life, interchangeable gimbals and better video capability.
Related: Hands On With Autel EVO II at CES2020
Since then DJI has been working behind the scenes to redesign the Mavic 2 Series with one goal: to leap ahead of the EVO II. A significant interruption, caused by a global pandemic now in it’s second year, has delayed the program, but we now think release of the Mavic 3 will be this summer.
Autel has already confirmed it will have a booth at CES2022 in Las Vegas, which will be returning to ‘in-person’ attendance. And DJI knows that Autel may already be preparing a refresh or upgrade for the EVO II.
And DJI usually surprises us at release time with new product specs that exceed all of the speculative chatter in the forums and facebook groups.
Why August Matters
As a fairly young company, DJI has now released enough product that there’s some predictibility to their product refresh cycles. Every tech company has a product cycle, designed to coerce current owners to upgrade and tease new buyers to come off the sidelines to get the latest and greatest new features.
With DJI we learned that these product refreshes tend to take place within on the same calendar month as the original model was released, or at most, the next month.
But don’t take our word for it, here’s the proof:
We attended the launch event for the Osmo Pocket in New York in November 2018, held at Good Morning America Studio in Times Square. It’s replacement, the Pocket 2, arrived exactly 2 years to the month later in November 2020.
Coincidence? Maybe.
But check out the Mini series releases. The Mavic Mini was released in October 2019 and it’s first refresh, the Mini 2, arrived one year later almost to the month in November 2020.
The first refresh of the DJI Mavic Air arrived as the Air 2 in April 2020 and was just refreshed again as the Air 2S exactly one year later in April 2021.
Once is a coincidence. The dates above point to clearly defined timelines inside DJI for product refreshes.
The Mavic 2 Series was released in August of 2018…literally almost three years ago. Only one DJI pro-sumer product that is still in production, the Phantom 4 V2.0, has gone longer without a refresh.
So will DJI refresh the Mavic 2 or let it fade away by handing it ‘end-of-life’ status?
We’re confident a refresh is coming. Like we said, August 2021.
There’s already been muted chatter from the usual sources on social media here in North America as well as in Asia.
So far we’ve seen alleged Mavic 3 leaked images and specs, which always happens in the leadup to a launch. The next action we look for is price drops on the existing model which are excellent predictors a model change is coming.
Last week Twitter user @OsitaLV shared that Mavic 2 production is ending, and that the Mavic 2 Zoom has already been discounted in China and Chile. (If you’re seeing Mavic 2 price drops in your country, please let us know!)
Mavic 3 = Major Upgrade
When the Mavic 3 is released we expect the upgrade to be significant. Autel moved the bar on battery life and video resolution, and having interchangeable gimbals offering huge scalabilty for operators across a range of aerial operations.
For comparison, Autel EVO II has these key specs that the Mavic 3 needs to meet or exceed:
Camera:
- 48MP Camera
- 1-8x Zoom
- 8K24/25fps
- 6K24/25/30fps
- 4K24/25/30/48/40/60fps
- 120 Mpbs bitrate
Aircraft:
- 7100 mAh battery
- 40 minute flight time
- Level 8 wind resistance
- -10-40C operating temp
Sensing:
- Omni-directional Binocular Sensing
- 12 Vision Sensors
Remote Control:
- 5.5 mile range
- 1080p image transmission
- 40Mbps transmission bitrate
- 3 hour battery life
And Autel has recently released a Smart Controller for the EVO II that is vastly superior to DJI’s Smart Controller, but for a much higher price.
Related: Autel Smart Controller Better in Every Way
All of these Autel specs, above, are the minimum that DJI needs to include in the Mavic 3.
One shortcoming worth noting in the EVO II is the absence of a variable aperture. Mavic 2 Pro users love the variable aperture and the control it gives them shooting in challenging light conditions. And fans of the Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 swear by the mechanical shutter on that model.
From our perspective there are some specs that are “must have” on the Mavic 3 drone.
40+ Minute Battery
When we met with Autel at CES2020, one of the sidebar comments we heard was that test operators had lots of surplus battery life when flying test missions. What a luxury. Imagine doing some extra flying, taking the time to capture some extra shots and footage (or even correct last minute mistakes) with a bigger battery. Or maybe just needing fewer batteries as an operator.
8K Video
At CES2020 in Las Vegas there were a couple of themes that dominated the show: AI, Robotics and Autonomous Vehicles were a huge presence. But 8K was dominant as well, and we were surprised at how quickly the industry just decided to jump right past 6K.
Drones like the EVO II were right there with 8K, and DJI has big catch-up to do here. Proof of concept was demonstrated with 8K Hyperlapse in the Air 2, but DJI’s high end customers will walk without it.
Interchangeable Gimbal
In theory, you can technically swap gimbals in the Mavic 2 Series, but it wasn’t designed for that. Advanced DIYers and specialty electronic shops are successfully swapping Pro and Zoom gimbals, and third-party companies like Kolarvision will add a thermal camera to your Mavic 2 for crop scanning.
DJI has a big opportunity to make the upcoming Mavic 3 the ultimate platform drone by designing it for maximum expansion and scalability.
Smart Controller 2.0
The DJI Smart Controller is one of our all-time favorite drone accessories. It’s rare that we’ll use the stock controller for any of our drones that are Smart Controller compatible.
But the Smart Controller uses an aging, integrated OnePlus smartphone for the display. We don’t have any complaints about the screen itself, but it’s time to make it bigger and the battery life longer.
If Mavic 3 has big gains in battery life, the controller will need to keep pace.
Easiest Mavic 3 Predictions
Between now and August, when we think the Mavic 3 is most likley to be released, we can almost guarantee that the following things will happen:
- leaked images and specs will increase the closer we get to launch
- retailers like B&H Photo and Adorama will tip us off with price-drops on the Mavic 2 Series
- a major retailer will leak in-store product images
You can almost set your watch to the process that has evolved around DJI product launches.
Lastly, you’ll be able to count on the team at DRN to be the lead on all news and rumors on the Mavic 3.
We’d love to hear your feedback on this or any other article we right. Share your thoughts in the comments!
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Great write up. Thank you
Thanks for publishing any new rumors on the Mavic 3 release.
That 48mp camera spec is borderline fraud. The pixel shift trick is only useful for forensics. In terms of picture quality, the slight acuity gain is undercut by increased noise. Lets hope that the Mavic 3 has a 1.5″ sensor or something that equals a real gain in image quality.
With the release of the Mini SE, do you think that DJI will still release the Mini 3 or Mini 2S this year?
Yes, we very much expect the Mavic 3 this year.
I agree that the 48 megapixel resolution on the Evo is a gimmick. I’d be happy with a moderate increase in true capture resolution, say 36 mp. More would be great, but pixel shift tech has limited use.
But the most important features for me are large sensor, global shutter, high data rate, and secondary hdmi support or goggle support like the Phantom 4 line had. It’s idiotic for DJI to release drones that aren’t compatible with their own goggles and controllers. They need to release drone, goggle, and controller that play perfectly together, all at the same time.
And 8k footage that’s limited to 120 mbps is also a gimmick. Noisy compressed garbage. 5k or 6k footage in a pro container and high bit depth (or raw) would be way more useful to most professionals. We want low-noise footage that can be graded well.
But these companies care more about marketing and numbers, so they sacrifice true value for perceived value. Now that Autel is competing with them, it will be all about beating their competitor’s numbers, not about giving users what they need.
I still prefer my P4P over the Mavic 2 for most gigs because the sensor is better, the secondary HDMI can be piped to a monitor or goggles, the global shutter is incredible, and it is tack sharp… plus it can be caught by hand easily. Only downside to it is the size.
Excellent comments, TJ. Couldn’t agree more. Based on what is (or isn’t) coming from DJI lately it seems like production is running ahead of developers ability to keep up.
Example would be no SKD released for Mavic 2 Series.